Nepal’s real estate sector is showing cautious signs of recovery after years of stagnation, according to a new report released today by the Nepal Rastra Bank. The analysis draws on data from the Department of Land Management and Archives, the Inland Revenue Department, and the central bank’s own banking statistics, and will be published quarterly going forward.
The government’s decision earlier this year to temporarily suspend a planned licensing regime for real estate agents has added further uncertainty to the market’s regulatory direction.
The NRB based its analysis on rajinama transactions — a legal category reflecting voluntary transfer or relinquishment of property rights — widely used to capture property buy-and-sell activity across the country.
72.41%
Real estate loan growth (FY 2077/78–2081/82)
61.55%
Residential loan growth (same period)
Rs 15B
Govt. revenue from real estate, FY 2081/82
Seasonal Swings and Provincial Disparities
Nepal’s property transactions follow a marked seasonal pattern, with volumes bottoming out in the first quarter and peaking in the third and fourth. By total land area transacted, Madhes Province led all provinces, followed by Koshi and Lumbini, while Karnali and Sudurpaschim recorded the lowest volumes. Bagmati Province topped the rankings by declared transaction value, reflecting the premium prices commanded by land in the Kathmandu Valley.
What People Are Buying: Plot Size Trends
In metropolitan and sub-metropolitan areas, mid-sized plots of 5 to 10 aana accounted for the highest share of transactions. Across most provinces, plots in the 2.5–10 aana range were the most commonly traded. Madhes is a notable exception — most of its transactions involved plots larger than 20 aana, reflecting demand for agricultural and industrial land.
Bank Lending Surges
Between fiscal years 2077/78 and 2081/82, real estate loans from banks and financial institutions grew 72.41 percent, while residential loans expanded 61.55 percent. This pace of credit growth significantly outstrips overall economic expansion during the same period, raising questions about the sustainability of price recovery if demand remains primarily credit-driven.
Government Revenue: A Long Road Back
State revenues from real estate have not fully recovered from the sector’s downturn. Revenue peaked at Rs 23.70 billion in the first quarter of FY 2078/79, then fell steeply to Rs 8.20 billion in the first quarter of 2079/80. Collections have since climbed to roughly Rs 15 billion in FY 2081/82 — still well below that earlier peak.
A Market in Transition
The NRB report arrives as Nepal’s property sector navigates multiple pressures: elevated interest rates in prior years dampened demand, urban migration continues to push land prices in Kathmandu and Pokhara, and concerns over speculative buying persist. The government’s decision earlier this year to temporarily suspend a planned licensing regime for real estate agents has added further uncertainty to the market’s regulatory direction.
